1st SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 9 February 2025
Voter turnout 35% | 1x relative majority against
If the environmental responsibility initiative had already been put to the vote on 8 December 2024, a relative majority of 49 per cent of voters with a firm intention to vote would have definitely or rather voted against it. 45 per cent would have definitely or rather voted in favour of it. The initiative is starting the main campaign phase on the back foot.
At 35%, voter turnout is well below the long-term average (47% between 2011 and 2023 according to the FSO).
Environmental Responsibility Initiative:
Current voting intentions are cautiously critical (49:45(6)). At this early stage, the opinion picture is relatively stable and thus moderately advanced, with 61 per cent firmly decided and the voting decisions solidly anchored in the arguments. The conflict pattern shows familiar lines: Support comes from voters with links to the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party, as well as from women, younger people and French-speaking Switzerland. A conflict between the elite and the rank and file is emerging with regard to the Green Liberal Party: while the National Council faction voted against it unanimously, the initiative enjoys widespread support among the party’s grassroots.
Although the advanced stage of opinion-forming reduces the scope for campaign effects, mobilisation is still well below average. However, given the lack of majority support in the initial situation and the population’s clear expectations, a ‘no’ vote to the environmental responsibility initiative is more likely on 9 February 2025 than a ‘yes’ vote as things stand today.
Overview voting intention vote 9 February 2025 - wave 1
In the cockpit linked here (in German and French), you will find not only the detailed results but also background information on the proposals, the theory and the method of the SRG trend survey.
