2nd SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 14 June 2026
If the vote had been held on 23 May 2026, the popular initiative “No to a 10 Million Switzerland!” (sustainability initiative) would have been rejected. The amendment to the Civilian Service Act, by contrast, would have been too close to call. Over the course of the campaign, both proposals have lost ground, with opinion shifting towards No. The key question is therefore not so much whether voters’ views will still change fundamentally. Rather, the outcome will depend on which groups are mobilised more strongly by 14 June. For the sustainability initiative, attention is focused on the political centre, voters without party affiliation, and divides by age and settlement type. For the Civilian Service Act, the decisive question is whether supporters can hold on to their structural advantages or whether opponents can build further momentum from the current No trend.
The initiative has moved out of the deadlock evident in the first wave. Currently, 45 per cent of eligible voters who intend to participate would definitely or probably vote in favour of the initiative, while 52 per cent would definitely or probably vote against it. A further 3 per cent remain undecided.
The conflict pattern remains strongly political. Support among Swiss People Party’s voters is almost unanimous, while supporters of the Greens, the Socialist Party and the Green Liberal Party clearly reject the proposal. In the political centre, opposition has strengthened among voters close to the Centre Party and the Liberal Party. Voters without party affiliation, by contrast, remain almost evenly split. This makes them one of the key groups in which the vote may be decided. Relevant shifts are also visible across the language regions. The move towards No has been particularly marked in French speaking Switzerland. The proposal is now narrowly leaning No in German speaking Switzerland and clearly rejected in French speaking Switzerland. Italian speaking Switzerland, by contrast, remains closely divided and still leans slightly towards Yes. Another divide runs along age lines. Younger voters and those over 70 are more inclined to vote No, while the middle age group remains split. Among 40 to 64 year olds, support and opposition are almost evenly balanced. This means that the proposal will not simply be decided along generational lines, but also among politically and socially middle aged voters, where positions are less clearly settled. Clear differences also emerge by type of residential area. Rural areas still lean Yes, while urban areas now reject the initiative more clearly. In intermediate areas, the proposal still has majority support, but the lead held by supporters has shrunk markedly. The vote will therefore also be shaped by the spatial divide between a stronger perception of the pression of population growth in rural areas and clearer rejection in urban areas.
In terms of content, concerns about the strain population growth places on infrastructure and public services remain strong. A clear majority share the view that housing, transport, schools and hospitals are coming under increasing pressure as the population grows. At the same time, the counterarguments around skilled labour shortages, the bilateral path with the EU and economic risks also garner majority support. Compared with the first wave, the overall argumentative balance has shifted in favour of the initiative’s opponents.
Amendment to the Civilian Service Act: structural factors still point to Yes, but the trend points to No
For the amendment to the Civilian Service Act, the picture at the end of May was essentially tied. Currently, 48 per cent would definitely or probably vote in favour, while 46 per cent would definitely or probably vote against. A further 6 per cent remain undecided. The Yes lead recorded in the first wave has therefore virtually disappeared.
The proposal remains clearly structured along political lines. Supporters of the Liberal Party and the Swiss People Party still mostly back the amendment. Among supporters of the Greens, the Socialist Party and the Green Liberal Party, by contrast, opposition has become clearer than in the first wave. Voters close to the Centre Party and those without party affiliation still lean towards Yes, but support is falling in both groups. This means that this proposal, too, is likely to be decided in the political centre and among voters with looser party ties.
What stands out is the unusual pattern by trust in government. Voters who trust the government are now more likely to oppose the amendment, while government sceptics mostly support it. This runs counter to the usual pattern for proposals backed by the Federal Council and Parliament.
In terms of arguments, the Yes side still has the stronger hand. The case for securing the army’s personnel strength and operational capability continues to resonate with a broad majority. At the same time, the counterarguments are gaining traction. The most important is the criticism that stricter rules would weaken civilian service unnecessarily without actually strengthening the army. As a result, the debate is moving beyond a purely security policy rationale and increasingly revolves around how to balance the army’s needs, fairness, and the wider social value of civilian service.
Overall, the structural factors still point to an advantage for the Yes side, while the observed trend points towards No. The outcome therefore remains open.
Turnout intention stands at 54 per cent, well above the long-term average. Supporters of the Greens and the Centre Party are currently particularly mobilised. Mobilisation among supporters of the Socialist Party and the Swiss People’s Party remains above average, despite declining figures, whereas mobilisation among voters without party affiliation continues to be below average.
The mobilisation pattern by trust in government has reversed. Voters who trust the government are now mobilised at an above average level, while government sceptics exhibit below average levels of mobilisation.
The results are based on a survey conducted as part of the SRG trend surveys. Fieldwork took place from 19 to 27 May 2026. Eligible voters across Switzerland were surveyed. The survey used a mixed mode design combining CATI, online and Boomerang. All figures are subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.
These findings represent a snapshot around three weeks before voting day and should not be understood as a forecast.
- The cockpit linked here provides detailed results (available in German and French), background information on the proposals (in German), and information on the theory and methodology of the SRG trend survey (in German).
