1st SRG trend survey on the federal vote of june 14th 2026
Voter turnout 50% | Deadlock on the ‘No to a 10-million-strong Switzerland’ initiative, narrow majority in favour of amending the Civil Service Act
Had the vote taken place on 26 April 2026, the amendment to the Civil Service Act would have been approved. The sustainability initiative, however, would have resulted in a deadlock.
Opinion-forming on the two proposals is at different stages of development at this early stage of the referendum campaign. Support for the SVP’s sustainability initiative appears comparatively solid: 79 per cent of those willing to vote state a firm intention to vote for or against the proposal. Opinion-forming is less advanced regarding the amendment to the Civil Service Act. Here, only 57 per cent of those willing to participate express a firm opinion in favour or against it. The arguments underpinning voting decisions are also already clearly discernible at the start of the main campaign for the SVP’s sustainability initiative. Regarding the amendment to the Civil Service Act, however, they remain less pronounced.
At 50 per cent, voter turnout is already above the long-term average of 47.1 per cent between 2011 and 2024, according to the FSO.
These findings represent a snapshot at the start of the main campaign phase and should not be interpreted as a forecast.
Voting intentions14. Juni 2026
‘No to a 10-million-strong Switzerland’ initiative
The “No to a 10-million-strong Switzerland!” popular initiative enters the referendum campaign with voting intentions evenly split: 47 per cent of eligible voters willing to participate currently intend to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ with certainty or somewhat. Opinion-forming is already well advanced and largely follows political fault lines. In terms of content, concerns about infrastructure and livelihoods are pitted against economic and foreign policy arguments.
Amendment to the Civilian Service Act
The amendment to the Civilian Service Act enters the referendum campaign with a narrow lead in favour: 52 per cent of eligible voters would currently definitely or probably vote in favour, whilst 40 per cent would vote against. Opinion is only moderately firm, whilst the arguments in favour of safeguarding the army’s operational capability clearly have majority support, and the opposition’s main concern is the unnecessary weakening of civilian service.
Above-average turnout expected
The current intention to vote in the referendum on 14 June 2026 stands at 50 per cent, which is above the long-term average of 47.1 per cent. Older voters, those on very high incomes, and supporters of the Greens, the SP and the SVP are particularly keen to vote; at the same time, early mobilisation shows a clear anti-government bias. Details of the survey can be found here.
How the survey was conducted
The results are based on a survey conducted as part of the SRG trend polls. Survey period: 20 April–3 May 2026. Voters across Switzerland were surveyed. Sample size: 19,728. Method: Mixed-mode (CATI, online, Boomerang). All figures are subject to a 95 per cent probability with a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
In the dashboard linked here, you will find, in addition to the detailed results, background information on the proposals, the theory and the methodology of the SRG trend survey
