1. SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 27 September 2026
Turnout intention 44 % | Neutrality Initiative: clear lead for the No side, Food Initiative in a dead heat
If the vote had been held on the 9th of August 2026, the Neutrality Initiative would have been rejected. The Food Initiative, by contrast, would have been in a dead heat.
Opinion formation on the two proposals is at different stages at this early point in the campaign. For the Neutrality Initiative, views are already comparatively consolidated: 73 percent of those intending to vote have a firm voting intention either for or against the proposal. Opinion formation is less advanced for the Food Initiative, where only 60 percent currently express a firm position for or against it. The arguments also point to a clearer picture for the Neutrality Initiative, with the “No” side enjoying broader support. For the Food Initiative, the arguments are more evenly balanced, suggesting that opinions are still less settled.
Intended turnout currently stands at 44%, below the long-term average of 47.4 percent.
These findings represent a snapshot around seven weeks before voting day and should not be interpreted as a forecast.
Neutrality Initiative
The Neutrality Initiative enters the main campaign with a clear lead for its opponents. At present, 54 percent of eligible voters intending to participate would definitely or probably vote against it, while 42 percent would definitely or probably vote in favor of it. Opinion formation is already well advanced and is shaped primarily by party political divisions and trust in the government. The “No” side also enjoys broader support across the arguments tested. At the heart of the debate are two different understandings of neutrality: one based on permanently enshrining neutrality in the Federal Constitution, and another based on a flexible neutrality policy that continues to allow international cooperation and the imposition of sanctions.
Food Initiative
The Food Initiative starts from an open position: 47 percent would currently definitely or probably vote in favour, while 49 percent would definitely or probably vote against. Taking the sampling error into account, this amounts to a dead heat. The initiative’s core concerns enjoy majority support. At the same time, key objections to its concrete implementation are also persuasive. Opinion formation is less advanced, with 60 percent holding a firm voting intention and the outlook for the initiative remains challenging, as popular initiatives tend to lose support over the course of an election campaign.
Turnout currently below average
Intended turnout for the vote on 27 September 2026 currently stands at 44 percent, below the long-term average of 47.4 percent. Willingness to participate is particularly high among older eligible voters and among supporters of the Greens and the Liberal Party. Turnout intention is comparatively low among supporters of the Swiss People’s Party and the Green Liberal Party. Mobilisation is likely to increase as voting day approaches.
Methodology
The results are based on an SRG trend survey conducted among eligible voters across Switzerland. The survey was carried out from 3 August to 16 August 2026. The sample comprised 17,212 respondents. A mixed mode approach was used (CATI, online, Boomerang). All figures are subject to a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
The dashboard provides additional detailed results, background information on the proposals, as well as further information on the theoretical framework and methodology of the SRG trend surveys.
