First SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 30 November 2025
Voter turnout 41% | Stalemate on the Service-citoyen initiative and majority against the Initiative for the Future
If the vote had already taken place on 10 October 2025, the initiative for a future would have been rejected, while the Service citoyen initiative would have resulted in a stalemate. At 41%, voter turnout to date is below the long-term average (47.1% between 2011 and 2024 according to the FSO).
If the vote had already taken place on 10 October 2025, the initiative for a future would have been rejected, while the Service citoyen initiative would have resulted in a stalemate. At 41%, voter turnout to date is below the long-term average (47.1% between 2011 and 2024 according to the FSO).
The Service-citoyen initiative is starting in an open race: 48% of those willing to participate would currently vote in favour, while 46% would vote against. Opinions are not yet firmly established, as only just under half have a clear position. Support comes from the left-wing and green camps, while rejection comes from the centre-right and those not affiliated with any party. Younger, more highly educated people, men and respondents from French-speaking Switzerland have so far tended to be in favour. In terms of content, the pro side is slightly more convincing. Solidarity, a sense of responsibility and equality are seen as the main positive arguments. The most effective counter-argument is concern about the costs of initialisation and administration. Overall, the starting position is slightly positive but fragile, with room for manoeuvre in the referendum campaign.
The Initiative for the Future is starting the main campaign phase on the defensive: a majority of eligible voters who intend to participate reject it at this stage. It finds support almost exclusively among SP and Green Party supporters, as well as among younger and Italian-speaking voters, while the remaining party voters, men and German-speaking Switzerland are clearly opposed to it. The pro argument that the wealthy should contribute more to climate protection also divides along party lines. The opposing side, on the other hand, is convincing with warnings about liquidity risks for family businesses and possible tax evasion by the wealthy. Overall, the picture is already quite clear and one-sided: the ‘no’ side dominates, while the proponents are on the defensive. From today’s perspective, a no vote is more likely than a yes vote.
In the cockpit linked here, you will find detailed results as well as background information on the proposals, the theory and the methodology of the SRG trend survey.
