SVP gains in the Grand Council – Trede surprises in the Executive Council race
Around six weeks before the cantonal elections on 29 March 2026 – and before the campaign had effectively begun – the election barometer commissioned by Gassmann Media AG shows the following starting position: in the cantonal government, incumbent members benefit from the advantage of office, while in the Grand Council a slight shift toward traditional centre-right parties is visible. Substantively, one issue dominates the election debate: rising living costs.
The starting position for the Executive Council elections combines continuity with renewal. Three members of the government – Christoph Neuhaus (SVP), Christoph Ammann (SP) and Christine Häsler (GPS) – are not seeking re-election. At least three of the seven seats will therefore be newly filled. Four incumbents are running again: Evi Allemann (SP), Astrid Bärtschi (The Centre), Philippe Müller (FDP) and Pierre Alain Schnegg (SVP).
Satisfaction ratings show a clear pattern. Incumbents generally benefit from the advantage of office, although not equally. Evi Allemann achieves the highest satisfaction ratings of all candidates and is the only candidate for whom an absolute majority of respondents express satisfaction with her political performance. Astrid Bärtschi also receives clearly positive evaluations. The picture is more mixed for Pierre Alain Schnegg and Philippe Müller. Both have high name recognition and a solid support base but are perceived more polarisingly.
Aline Trede’s position is particularly noteworthy. Although she is not a member of the Executive Council, her approval ratings are on a par with those of the incumbents. This places the National Councillor firmly among the frontrunners from an early stage, defying the traditional logic of incumbency.
The simulated vote confirms this pattern. Evi Allemann clearly ranks first and is the only candidate to surpass the absolute majority threshold by a large margin. The other incumbents also rank among the top candidates, while Pierre Alain Schnegg secures the institutionally guaranteed Jura seat.
In the race for the open seats, Reto Müller on the SP side and Raphael Lanz for the SVP appear to have an early advantage. Both are positioned within the range of electable candidates and benefit from a strong party base.Daniel Bichsel and Hervé Gullotti are close behind. For GLP candidate Tobias Vögeli, the starting position is structurally more challenging, as the party’s grassroots support in the canton is significantly smaller than that of the major parties.
Voting intentions for the Grand Council show a moderate but politically relevant shift about six weeks before the election. The SVP remains by far the strongest party in the canton and increases its support compared with 2022. The SP remains the second-strongest party. The GPS stay in the double-digit range and stabilise their support. FDP, GLP and The Centre remain relatively close to one another, with The Centre gaining slightly. The FDP, however, loses ground and is increasingly squeezed between a stronger SVP on the right and centrist parties such as the GLP and The Centre.
Overall, the snapshot suggests a slight shift toward conservative, traditional parties. At the same time, the basic structure of Bernese politics remains stable: the SVP is particularly strong in rural areas, while the SP maintains a strong base in cities.
Regional analyses confirm this urban-rural divide. In the Biel-Bienne-Seeland constituency, the political landscape is predominantly conservative, with the SVP dominating and the SP maintaining a stable position in the more urban municipalities. In the city of Bern, however, the red-green bloc remains clearly in the lead. There, the SP is well ahead, followed by the GPS and the GLP.
Gender-specific differences also influence voting behaviour. Men are significantly more likely to vote for the SVP, whilst women show above-average support for the SP and the GPS. Overall, women in the canton of Bern vote significantly further to the left than men.
Substantively, the campaign is clearly shaped by economic concerns. For 35% of voters, living costs and health insurance premiums represent the most important challenge. No other issue comes close to these figures.
Climate and environmental protection follow in second place (29%), ahead of affordable housing (23%). Tax burdens, as well as crime and safety in public spaces, are also frequently mentioned. The importance of cost considerations becomes even clearer when it comes to the actual voting decision. 17 per cent of voters cite the cost of living and health insurance premiums as the decisive factor in their choice of party. Climate protection follows in second place, some way behind. It is noteworthy that this factor cuts across party lines. Even among SVP voters, the cost of living is the top priority when it comes to the actual voting decision. The financial burden thus partly overshadows other political divisions.
At the same time, clear party-political distinctions remain evident. Many respondents perceive the SP as particularly competent on issues relating to the cost of living. When it comes to climate protection, the GPS clearly dominates, followed by the SP and the GLP. Competence in economic policy, on the other hand, is most strongly associated with the FDP.
In addition to differences in political affiliation, there are also social differences. Women place greater emphasis on social issues, climate protection and supply issues, whilst men are more likely to mention security, migration and tax issues. There are also differences in how problems are perceived between the German-speaking and French-speaking populations.
On behalf of Gassmann Media AG, gfs.bern conducted a cantonal election survey ahead of the Bern general elections on 29 March 2026. The study aimed to capture the political starting position for the elections to the Grand Coundil and the Executive Council and to identify trends and mobilisation potential.
The survey was conducted as a mixed-mode online survey. It combined an openly advertised opt-in survey via the media partner’s channels, targeted social media outreach and the Polittrends panel from gfs.bern. A total of 1,613 eligible voters in the canton of Bern were surveyed. The fieldwork phase ran from 6 to 22 February 2026, with the median date of the interviews being 12 February 2026. As this is not a classic random sample, the data was weighted by age and gender, as well as by language, type of settlement, education, party affiliation and constituency. The margin of error is ±2.4 percentage points at a confidence level of 50 per cent and a 95 per cent probability of error.
Further information, as well as all charts and detailed analyses, can be found in the Canton of Bern 2026 Election Barometer Cockpit (in German).
