2nd SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 30 November 2025
Voter turnout 43% | Voting intentions for the Service citoyen initiative and the Initiative for a Future in the No camp
If the vote had already taken place on 8 November 2025, the Service citoyen initiative and the Initiative for a Future, also known as the Juso inheritance tax initiative, would have been rejected. Both proposals were caught up in a No trend during the course of the campaign.
The current opinion on the initiative ‘For a committed Switzerland (Service-citoyen initiative)’ is clear: a reduced 32 per cent (-16 ppt.) of those willing to participate would have voted in favour of the proposal on 8 November 2025, while 64 per cent (+18 ppt.) would have voted against it. What was a stalemate at the start of the main campaign phase has now turned into a majority rejection due to this trend towards a “no” vote. Four per cent are undecided or do not (yet) want to or are unable to express an opinion on the Service-citoyen initiative.
The assessment of the possible outcome of the vote has hardened further and now points more clearly to a no vote: only 18 per cent of eligible voters who intend to participate consider acceptance likely, while 82 per cent expect rejection. On average, the yes vote is estimated at 42.1 per cent. Accordingly, a no vote is expected at the ballot box.
If the inheritance tax initiative of the Juso had already been put to the vote on 8 November 2025, 68 per cent of eligible voters who were certain to participate would have voted against it (+6 ppt.). In contrast, only 30 per cent would have voted in favour of it (-4 ppt.). The opponents’ lead has thus increased to 38 percentage points, which corresponds to an increase of 11 percentage points.
The forecast of those eligible to vote who intend to participate is even clearer than a month ago: 91 per cent expect a rejection on 30 November 2025, while only 9 per cent expect it to be accepted. On average, the yes vote is estimated at 36.7 per cent (wave 1: 38.3 per cent). Those who intend to vote are therefore expected to reject the proposal at the ballot box.
Opinion formation is at different stages in this later phase of the referendum campaign: 68 per cent of those willing to participate in the Service citoyen initiative express a firm intention to vote for or against it, while the figure for the Initiative for the Future is significantly higher at 82 per cent. 4 and 2 per cent respectively are still undecided. The arguments underpinning the voting decisions on the Juso initiative are clearly discernible, but somewhat less so for the Service citoyen initiative.
At 43 per cent, voter turnout is well below the long-term average (47.1 per cent between 2011 and 2024 according to the FSO) and has hardly risen since the first survey. The two initiatives are therefore only mobilising voters to a limited extent.
In addition to the detailed results, the cockpit linked here provides background information on the proposals, the theory and the methodology of the SRG trend survey.
