2nd SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 8 March 2026

The level of opinion formation remains at different stages of progress. It is most advanced in the case of the SRG initiative: 85 per cent of those willing to participate have a firm intention to vote for or against the proposal. More than two-thirds also express firm opinions on the cash initiative, the climate fund initiative and the federal law on individual taxation. However, opinion formation is significantly less advanced on the counter-proposal to the cash initiative, with only 55 per cent of those willing to participate expressing a firm opinion for or against it.

At 48 per cent, voter turnout is currently close to the long-term average (47.1 per cent between 2011 and 2024 according to the FSO).

Cash initiative and counter-proposal: current voting intentions are in favour, but opinions remain relatively open

The cash initiative remains in favour among the majority, but is losing support. The direct counter-proposal is gaining ground and is clearly preferred in the tiebreaker question.

61 per cent of eligible voters who intend to participate would accept the cash initiative (-4 percentage points), while 36 per cent reject it. The direct counterproposal achieves 70 per cent approval (+3 percentage points) and thus remains significantly stronger. In the tiebreaker question, 54 per cent opt for the counterproposal and 41 per cent for the initiative.

Opinion on the initiative remains relatively open, while positions on the counter-proposal have become more firmly established. In terms of party politics, the SVP remains clearly in the yes camp, while outside of it, the no vote is becoming increasingly consolidated. There is also a decline in support for the initiative among older voters and in urban areas.

In terms of content, support for the initiative is based primarily on the argument of personal freedom. At the same time, objections are gaining weight, arguing that the initiative is legally imprecise and that the counter-proposal provides sufficient protection for cash. Overall, there are signs of a slight shift in favour of the counter-proposal.

SRG initiative: Current voting intentions with advanced opinion formation in favour of a no vote

The SRG initiative would currently be narrowly rejected. Despite the majority of no votes, many voters still expect it to be accepted.

54 per cent of eligible voters would reject the initiative, 44 per cent would approve it, and 2 per cent are undecided. At the same time, 54 per cent expect it to be accepted on voting day; the estimated yes vote is 50.6 per cent.

Opinion formation is well advanced: 85 per cent say they have made up their minds. There is clear polarisation along party lines. While the SVP camp is clearly in favour, the SP, Greens, GLP and centre parties reject the proposal by a majority; the FDP is also predominantly against it.

In addition to party affiliation, trust in the government and institutions shapes opinion. Those who are critical of the government tend to support the initiative, while those who are pro-government clearly reject it.

In terms of content, the arguments in favour do not have majority support. The arguments against are much stronger, particularly the importance of the SRG for information, solidarity and direct democracy. Overall, with the outcome still too close to call, there is a slight advantage for the ‘no’ camp.

Climate Fund Initiative: Current voting intentions in favour of ‘no’

The Climate Fund Initiative would currently be clearly rejected. Rejection has increased slightly since the first wave.

65 per cent of eligible voters who intend to participate would reject the initiative, 31 per cent would approve it and 4 per cent are undecided. 87 per cent expect a no vote on the day of the referendum; the estimated yes vote is 39 per cent.

Opinion formation is well advanced: 71 per cent express a clear voting intention. In terms of party politics, support for the proposal is largely confined to the left-wing and green camp. It has the backing of the Greens and the SP, while the GLP, Centre, FDP and SVP are mostly against it. This means that it lacks support from the political centre.

Gender and language region also structure the opinion: women and French-speaking Switzerland are somewhat more open, but overall, rejection prevails in all groups.

In terms of content, fiscal concerns dominate. A majority considers the planned investments to be too burdensome or considers existing climate policy instruments to be sufficient. The arguments in favour – such as accelerating climate protection – are particularly convincing among the core supporters, but are not enough to secure a majority. Overall, the current momentum clearly points to a rejection of the initiative.

Individual taxation: Current voting intentions narrowly in favour – trend towards rejection

Individual taxation would currently have been narrowly accepted. At the same time, support has declined significantly within a short period of time.

52 per cent of eligible voters who intend to participate would approve the proposal, 44 per cent reject it and 4 per cent are undecided. Compared to the first wave, the yes vote has fallen by 12 percentage points. Nevertheless, 73 per cent expect it to be approved at the ballot box; the estimated yes vote is 54 per cent.

Opinion formation is moderately advanced: 68 per cent express a firm stance. In terms of party politics, the conflict pattern has intensified. The SVP and the centre have shifted significantly towards a no vote, while the SP and the Greens are mostly in favour. Trust in the government also has a structuring effect: among those critical of the government, the majority are leaning towards a no vote.

In terms of content, equality and incentives to work remain the most important arguments in favour. At the same time, objections are gaining weight, claiming that the reform will cause additional burdens and administrative costs. Overall, the initial broad support has given way to a clearer division of opinion – the outcome of the vote remains open.

Willingness to participate close to average

The intention to participate in the vote on 8 March 2026 is average. At the same time, there are significant shifts between population groups.

48 per cent of eligible voters say they definitely intend to participate. This means that the willingness to participate is close to the long-term average of 47.1 per cent.

What is striking is the stronger mobilisation of 18- to 39-year-olds (34%; +10 percentage points), even though they still lag behind the older groups. Participation remains high among 40- to 64-year-olds (58%), while it declines slightly among those over 65 (56%). Women now show a higher intention to participate (59%; +12 percentage points), while among men it is declining (40%).

Politically, voters affiliated with the GLP, SP and Green parties are particularly strongly mobilised. Among those affiliated with the SVP and centrist parties, however, the likelihood of participation is declining. Trust in the government also has a significant effect: among those who trust the government, the intention to participate is rising sharply, while among those who distrust it, it is clearly declining.

Geographically, there is a shift in favour of cities. Participation is increasing in urban areas, while declining significantly in rural areas. Overall, average participation is expected, with clearly different mobilisation patterns between political and social groups.