1. SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 8 March 2026

Cash initiative and counter-proposal: broad support but little conviction

The cash initiative is entering the main campaign phase with a clear majority in favour. At the same time, opinions are still largely undecided. Many of those willing to participate tend to be in favour of the direct counter-proposal in particular. In terms of content, cash enjoys broad support as a symbol of personal freedom and self-determination. However, the constitutional route and institutional questions of jurisdiction are viewed more controversially. The counter-proposal appears more consensual and shows fewer lines of conflict. Accordingly, the key question shows a preference in favour of the counter-proposal.

SRG initiative: polarisation with advanced opinion formation

Opinion formation on the SRG initiative is already relatively advanced. A clear left-right divide structures the early opinion. While voters close to the SVP and critical of the government support the initiative, opposition is forming particularly in the left-green camp and among people with a high level of trust in the government. The arguments against the initiative predominate, especially with regard to the role of the SRG in providing information and promoting direct democracy. At the same time, key arguments in favour of the initiative, such as the financial relief for households, are having a demonstrable effect. The narrow majority indicates that mobilisation effects are highly significant.

Climate Fund Initiative: Clear rejection dominates

The Climate Fund Initiative is entering the main campaign phase with a clear lead for the ‘no’ vote. Opponents have arguments that are likely to win majority support, particularly with regard to the burden on the federal budget, the role of the state and the assessment that existing climate policy instruments are sufficient. The initiative finds support primarily among the left-wing and green camps, as well as among younger and female voters. Overall, however, the starting position is clearly defensive, and the expectation of rejection at the ballot box is widely held.

Individual taxation: Broad support with an open campaign

The Federal Act on Individual Taxation enjoys broad support in the early stages. The majority of almost all population groups are in favour of the proposal. Support is particularly strong among women and in the left-wing/green camp. Arguments in favour of abolishing the marriage penalty, providing incentives to work and promoting financial independence are shaping the positive opinion. At the same time, opinion-forming is not yet complete, which leaves room for campaign effects.

Willingness to participate close to average

At 47 per cent, the intention to participate measured so far is close to the long-term average. Older voters, people with higher socio-economic status and groups critical of the government are mobilising at an above-average rate. As the referendum campaign progresses, participation is likely to increase further and the composition of the electorate is likely to change.

How the survey was conducted The results are based on a survey conducted as part of the SRG trend surveys. Survey period: 12-26 January 2026. Voters throughout Switzerland were surveyed. Sample size: 15,371. Method: mixed mode (CATI, online, boomerang). All figures are valid with a probability of 95 per cent and a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.

In the cockpit linked here, you will find detailed results as well as background information on the proposals, the theory and the methodology behind the SRG trend survey.