30.01.2026 | Election and voting research
1. SRG trend survey on the federal vote of 8 March 2026
Martina Mousson, gfs.bern
Voter turnout 47% | Majorities for the cash initiative and counter-proposal as well as individual taxation, stalemate on the SRG initiative and majority against the climate fund initiative
If the vote had been held on 18 January 2026, both the cash initiative and the corresponding counter-proposal would have been accepted. In the tiebreaker question, a majority of those willing to participate would have voted in favour of the counter-proposal. The SRG initiative would have resulted in a stalemate. The climate fund initiative would have been rejected, while the federal law on individual taxation would have been accepted.
At 47 per cent, voter turnout is currently close to the long-term average (47.1 per cent between 2011 and 2024 according to the FSO).
These findings represent a snapshot at the beginning of the main campaign phase and should not be interpreted as a forecast.